Collective2 Collective2
Featured Strategy Cryptoverse Trades-Own-Strategy Certified Trades-Own-Strategy Certification Hypothetical

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This is an archived track record. This track record was archived on 9/21/23 11:44 ET. (See latest track record)
These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more
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6 FOREX
(143403723)

Created by: ARK ARK
Started: 01/2023
Futures
Last trade: 462 days ago

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $250.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

-82.5%
Cumul. Return

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Cumulative Rate of Return is calculated

= (Ending_equity - Starting_equity) / Starting_equity

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(100.0%)
Max Drawdown
125
Num Trades
80.8%
Win Trades
0.8 : 1
Profit Factor
20.8%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023(0.7%)+21.9%+8.3%+21.0%+14.2%(43.2%)+126.8%(46.3%)(74.2%)  -    -    -  (67.7%)
2024  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 48 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 815 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
8/6/23 18:54 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 37 0.007002 9/21 11:44 0.006879 390.09%
Trade id #145454693
Max drawdown($42,581)
Time9/15/23 0:00
Quant open14
Worst price0.006759
Drawdown as % of equity-390.09%
 ($57,498)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $296.00
8/4/23 15:36 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 5 142.106 8/7 9:08 142.003 0.19%
Trade id #145444192
Max drawdown($120)
Time8/7/23 6:18
Quant open5
Worst price142.448
Drawdown as % of equity-0.19%
 $36
8/4/23 15:34: Rescaled downward to 50% of previous Model Account size
8/4/23 9:52 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 1 0.007101 8/4 15:33 0.007098 0.16%
Trade id #145430807
Max drawdown($100)
Time8/4/23 11:16
Quant open1
Worst price0.007093
Drawdown as % of equity-0.16%
 ($46)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
8/4/23 9:24 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 1.500000000 0.007090 8/4 9:45 0.007103 n/a $232
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $12.00
8/3/23 11:52 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 9.500000000 0.007060 8/4 9:05 0.007070 0.8%
Trade id #145419693
Max drawdown($511)
Time8/4/23 8:30
Quant open2
Worst price0.007036
Drawdown as % of equity-0.80%
 $1,155
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $76.00
8/4/23 8:30 @BPU3 BRITISH POUND LONG 2.500000000 1.2668 8/4 8:32 1.2727 n/a $906
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $20.00
8/2/23 5:33 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 19 0.007034 8/3 11:21 0.007051 1.9%
Trade id #145401727
Max drawdown($1,106)
Time8/3/23 1:21
Quant open4
Worst price0.006997
Drawdown as % of equity-1.90%
 $4,073
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $152.00
8/3/23 2:38 @SFU3 SWISS FRANC LONG 2.500000000 1.1428 8/3 4:19 1.1437 0.2%
Trade id #145413214
Max drawdown($114)
Time8/3/23 3:04
Quant open1
Worst price1.1419
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
 $262
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $20.00
8/1/23 18:12 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 4.500000000 0.007048 8/2 2:59 0.007059 0.41%
Trade id #145399106
Max drawdown($243)
Time8/1/23 23:23
Quant open1
Worst price0.007027
Drawdown as % of equity-0.41%
 $589
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $36.00
8/1/23 7:13 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 3.500000000 0.007043 8/1 18:11 0.007049 0.95%
Trade id #145390105
Max drawdown($550)
Time8/1/23 13:35
Quant open2
Worst price0.007018
Drawdown as % of equity-0.95%
 $228
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $28.00
8/1/23 0:55 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN SHORT 1 0.007060 8/1 7:12 0.007050 0.07%
Trade id #145388560
Max drawdown($43)
Time8/1/23 3:31
Quant open0
Worst price0.007067
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 $117
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
7/30/23 21:02 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 0.500000000 140.881 7/31 2:53 142.065 0.01%
Trade id #145369984
Max drawdown($3)
Time7/31/23 0:00
Quant open0
Worst price140.686
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 $42
7/28/23 5:04 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN SHORT 3 0.007228 7/28 8:33 0.007212 0.79%
Trade id #145351623
Max drawdown($456)
Time7/28/23 7:38
Quant open1
Worst price0.007259
Drawdown as % of equity-0.79%
 $570
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
7/28/23 3:45 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN SHORT 0.500000000 0.007220 7/28 4:02 0.007211 n/a $52
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.00
7/27/23 23:58 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN SHORT 3.500000000 0.007240 7/28 3:44 0.007228 1.79%
Trade id #145350586
Max drawdown($1,028)
Time7/28/23 0:14
Quant open1
Worst price0.007302
Drawdown as % of equity-1.79%
 $497
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $28.00
7/27/23 23:58 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 1.500000000 0.007210 7/27 23:58 0.007209 0.02%
Trade id #145350581
Max drawdown($9)
Time7/27/23 23:58
Quant open1
Worst price0.007209
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 ($31)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $12.00
7/27/23 22:14 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 7.500000000 0.007205 7/27 23:53 0.007209 5.06%
Trade id #145350108
Max drawdown($2,915)
Time7/27/23 23:36
Quant open4
Worst price0.007143
Drawdown as % of equity-5.06%
 $328
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $60.00
7/27/23 18:13 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 0.500000000 139.040 7/27 18:13 139.042 n/a $0
7/26/23 23:50 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 11 0.007198 7/27 18:13 0.007225 5.53%
Trade id #145335730
Max drawdown($2,955)
Time7/27/23 10:50
Quant open4
Worst price0.007132
Drawdown as % of equity-5.53%
 $3,550
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $88.00
7/20/23 10:17 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 21.500000000 0.007178 7/26 23:07 0.007191 12.65%
Trade id #145272769
Max drawdown($5,418)
Time7/24/23 0:00
Quant open6
Worst price0.007113
Drawdown as % of equity-12.65%
 $3,291
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $172.00
7/11/23 10:24 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN SHORT 18.500000000 0.007237 7/20 10:16 0.007224 20.85%
Trade id #145173797
Max drawdown($7,415)
Time7/14/23 0:00
Quant open5
Worst price0.007359
Drawdown as % of equity-20.85%
 $2,821
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $148.00
7/11/23 3:52 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN SHORT 2.500000000 0.007203 7/11 9:41 0.007178 0.21%
Trade id #145170287
Max drawdown($100)
Time7/11/23 6:31
Quant open0
Worst price0.007211
Drawdown as % of equity-0.21%
 $755
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $20.00
6/14/23 8:32 @JYU3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 52.500000000 0.007125 7/11 3:52 0.007124 64.04%
Trade id #144917687
Max drawdown($14,323)
Time6/30/23 0:00
Quant open6
Worst price0.006976
Drawdown as % of equity-64.04%
 ($958)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $420.00
6/8/23 20:54 @JYM3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 9 0.007176 6/14 8:32 0.007175 2.48%
Trade id #144877749
Max drawdown($1,209)
Time6/13/23 0:00
Quant open2
Worst price0.007133
Drawdown as % of equity-2.48%
 ($128)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $72.00
6/13/23 2:32 @BPM3 BRITISH POUND LONG 3.500000000 1.2562 6/13 2:32 1.2564 n/a $16
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $28.00
6/8/23 9:42 @BPM3 BRITISH POUND SHORT 5.500000000 1.2546 6/13 2:32 1.2561 1.53%
Trade id #144870381
Max drawdown($737)
Time6/9/23 0:00
Quant open2
Worst price1.2593
Drawdown as % of equity-1.53%
 ($563)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $44.00
6/7/23 10:04 @JYM3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 3.500000000 0.007171 6/8 16:02 0.007192 1.14%
Trade id #144859365
Max drawdown($531)
Time6/7/23 18:00
Quant open1
Worst price0.007140
Drawdown as % of equity-1.14%
 $866
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $28.00
6/8/23 1:03 @BPM3 BRITISH POUND LONG 1 1.2454 6/8 5:01 1.2481 0.06%
Trade id #144867025
Max drawdown($28)
Time6/8/23 2:18
Quant open0
Worst price1.2445
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 $161
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/1/23 21:05 @JYM3 JAPANESE YEN LONG 15.500000000 0.007186 6/7 9:59 0.007194 5.28%
Trade id #144809013
Max drawdown($2,275)
Time6/5/23 0:00
Quant open3
Worst price0.007134
Drawdown as % of equity-5.28%
 $1,357
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $124.00
6/7/23 3:44 @BPM3 BRITISH POUND LONG 1 1.2423 6/7 6:08 1.2456 n/a $201
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    1/31/2023
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $25,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    688.3
  • Age
    23 months ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    125
  • # Profitable
    101
  • % Profitable
    80.80%
  • Avg trade duration
    2.0 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    100%
  • drawdown period
    Sept 15, 2023 - Sept 18, 2023
  • Cumul. Return
    -67.5%
  • Avg win
    $606.76
  • Avg loss
    $3,031
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $13,531
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $13,531
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    0.84:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    -0.11
  • Sortino Ratio
    -0.16
  • Calmar Ratio
    -0.653
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -74.41%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.05150
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    48.10%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    -82.5%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    716.00%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    0.98%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.73%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    -0.675%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    0.02%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    -27.5%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    77.00%
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    64.50%
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    54.00%
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    34.50%
  • Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    0.11%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    93.00%
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    422
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    885
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    506
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $3,031
  • Avg Win
    $607
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $72,745.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    24
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $61,283.000
  • # Winners
    101
  • Num Months Winners
    5
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    24
  • % Winners
    80.8%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    2938.70
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    48.98
  • Avg Trade Length
    2.0 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    455
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    22.19
  • Daily leverage (max)
    154.74
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    -0.07
  • Beta
    0.37
  • Treynor Index
    -0.13
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.06
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.06
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.02
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.24
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    -8.928
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.870
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -0.932
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    -0.112
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    2.00733
  • SD
    2.14160
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.93731
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.81417
  • df
    6.00000
  • t
    0.71588
  • p
    0.25048
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.71717
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.51886
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.79304
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.42138
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.33888
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    4.18952
  • Upside part of mean
    3.59563
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.58830
  • Upside SD
    1.87895
  • Downside SD
    0.85825
  • N nonnegative terms
    5.00000
  • N negative terms
    2.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    7.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.15262
  • Mean of criterion
    2.00733
  • SD of predictor
    0.09583
  • SD of criterion
    2.14160
  • Covariance
    -0.06166
  • r
    -0.30046
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -6.71432
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    3.03205
  • Mean Square Error
    5.00690
  • DF error
    5.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.70439
  • p(b)
    0.74368
  • t(a)
    0.92694
  • p(a)
    0.19825
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -31.21850
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    17.78990
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -5.37673
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    11.44080
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.29896
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    3.03205
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.45770
  • SD
    1.81689
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.25192
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.21882
  • df
    6.00000
  • t
    0.19240
  • p
    0.42689
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.32822
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.81178
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.35036
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.78800
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.39787
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.24759
  • Upside part of mean
    2.58558
  • Downside part of mean
    -2.12787
  • Upside SD
    1.23434
  • Downside SD
    1.15038
  • N nonnegative terms
    5.00000
  • N negative terms
    2.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    7.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14749
  • Mean of criterion
    0.45770
  • SD of predictor
    0.09437
  • SD of criterion
    1.81689
  • Covariance
    -0.05988
  • r
    -0.34925
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -6.72390
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    1.44938
  • Mean Square Error
    3.47811
  • DF error
    5.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.83344
  • p(b)
    0.77871
  • t(a)
    0.53359
  • p(a)
    0.30824
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -27.46340
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    14.01560
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -5.53337
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    8.43214
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.06807
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    1.44938
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.56158
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.64171
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.21211
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.43550
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    7.00000
  • Minimum
    0.52382
  • Quartile 1
    0.78882
  • Median
    1.11821
  • Quartile 3
    1.30031
  • Maximum
    2.36697
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.53907
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.07075
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.24684
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.86037
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.51149
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.14286
  • Mean of outliers high
    2.36697
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.44567
  • Quartile 1
    0.45330
  • Median
    0.46093
  • Quartile 3
    0.46855
  • Maximum
    0.47618
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.44567
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.47618
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01526
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.56137
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.62517
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.31287
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    1.31287
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.97423
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.11527
  • SD
    1.51412
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.07613
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.07578
  • df
    166.00000
  • t
    0.06078
  • p
    0.49764
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.37892
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.53098
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.37917
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.53073
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.11631
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    7.49710
  • Upside part of mean
    7.43010
  • Downside part of mean
    -7.31483
  • Upside SD
    1.13871
  • Downside SD
    0.99106
  • N nonnegative terms
    89.00000
  • N negative terms
    78.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    167.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.08487
  • Mean of criterion
    0.11527
  • SD of predictor
    0.12921
  • SD of criterion
    1.51412
  • Covariance
    0.01628
  • r
    0.08321
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.97513
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.20500
  • Mean Square Error
    2.29047
  • DF error
    165.00000
  • t(b)
    1.07263
  • p(b)
    0.44709
  • t(a)
    0.01713
  • p(a)
    0.49915
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.81985
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    2.77012
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -3.71343
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    3.77843
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.11821
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.03250
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.98976
  • SD
    1.48935
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.66456
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.66156
  • df
    166.00000
  • t
    -0.53057
  • p
    0.52057
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.11959
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.79236
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.11752
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.79441
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.88909
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.19515
  • Upside part of mean
    6.89665
  • Downside part of mean
    -7.88642
  • Upside SD
    0.98454
  • Downside SD
    1.11323
  • N nonnegative terms
    89.00000
  • N negative terms
    78.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    167.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.07656
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.98976
  • SD of predictor
    0.12914
  • SD of criterion
    1.48935
  • Covariance
    0.01688
  • r
    0.08778
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.01235
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -1.06727
  • Mean Square Error
    2.21441
  • DF error
    165.00000
  • t(b)
    1.13194
  • p(b)
    0.44419
  • t(a)
    -0.57222
  • p(a)
    0.52832
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.75350
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    2.77819
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -4.74991
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.61537
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.97769
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -1.06727
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.14369
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.17552
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.06115
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.12479
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    167.00000
  • Minimum
    0.66954
  • Quartile 1
    0.97223
  • Median
    1.00670
  • Quartile 3
    1.03242
  • Maximum
    1.52119
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.89956
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99011
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.01757
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.09535
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.06019
  • Number outliers low
    13.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.07784
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.82189
  • Number of outliers high
    9.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.05389
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.23619
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.10929
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.07871
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.10490
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.12596
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.09194
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.12366
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    17.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00671
  • Quartile 1
    0.01946
  • Median
    0.04584
  • Quartile 3
    0.13948
  • Maximum
    0.86834
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.01107
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.03010
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.08578
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.44100
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.12002
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.11765
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.67505
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.33674
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.40951
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.74685
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.91360
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.64437
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    7.39183
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.71905
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.61782
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.71149
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -1.40093
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -3.52000
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.41065
  • SD
    1.67271
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.24550
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.24408
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.17359
  • p
    0.50761
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.01711
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.52683
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.01605
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.52788
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.37626
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    7.36944
  • Upside part of mean
    8.04300
  • Downside part of mean
    -8.45366
  • Upside SD
    1.25940
  • Downside SD
    1.09140
  • N nonnegative terms
    66.00000
  • N negative terms
    65.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.18141
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.41065
  • SD of predictor
    0.11330
  • SD of criterion
    1.67271
  • Covariance
    0.01883
  • r
    0.09937
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.46708
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.67680
  • Mean Square Error
    2.79181
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    1.13425
  • p(b)
    0.43684
  • t(a)
    -0.28502
  • p(a)
    0.51597
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1.09201
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    4.02618
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -5.37498
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    4.02139
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.27991
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.67680
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -1.75437
  • SD
    1.64114
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -1.06900
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -1.06282
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.75589
  • p
    0.53308
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.84179
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.70779
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.83763
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.71200
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -1.42680
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.01444
  • Upside part of mean
    7.39527
  • Downside part of mean
    -9.14964
  • Upside SD
    1.08289
  • Downside SD
    1.22959
  • N nonnegative terms
    66.00000
  • N negative terms
    65.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.17497
  • Mean of criterion
    -1.75437
  • SD of predictor
    0.11312
  • SD of criterion
    1.64114
  • Covariance
    0.01986
  • r
    0.10697
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.55186
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -2.02591
  • Mean Square Error
    2.68317
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    1.22194
  • p(b)
    0.43203
  • t(a)
    -0.87055
  • p(a)
    0.54861
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.12100
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.96085
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    4.06457
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -6.63027
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.57845
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -1.13050
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -2.02591
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.15926
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.19357
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.07384
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.14613
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.66954
  • Quartile 1
    0.96073
  • Median
    1.00141
  • Quartile 3
    1.03550
  • Maximum
    1.52119
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.88601
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.98616
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.01540
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.10710
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.07477
  • Number outliers low
    6.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.04580
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.77122
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.03053
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.35338
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.23581
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.10219
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.12776
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.19548
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.10870
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.13848
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    10.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00671
  • Quartile 1
    0.02091
  • Median
    0.07532
  • Quartile 3
    0.15631
  • Maximum
    0.86834
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00814
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.06292
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.10864
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.50401
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.13540
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.20000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.67505
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -9.16745
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.41062
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.41063
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.72661
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.99934
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    n/a
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    1.14435
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -345202000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    3
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -1.15641
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.82209
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.94673
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -1.63110
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -4.24699

Strategy Description

Hello,

1) Trading experience since 2006. Experience in managing a fund of 20 million USD. The plan and goal for the future is to open a hedge fund.
2) My public verified trading results | 2011 + 12.11% | 2012 + 105.51% | 2013 + 272.49% | 2014 + 182.49% | 2015 + 121.17% | 2016 + 65.57% | 2017 + 18.24% | 2018 + 88.6% | 2019 +16.5%.
3) Manual trading is based on the use of advanced mathematical algorithms that generate accurate entry and exit signals, as well as on the analysis of intraday currency futures of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group).
4) Trading is carried out both on a trend and on a reversal, on FX futures CME - British Pound Futures, Euro FX Futures, Australian Dollar Futures, Japanese Yen Futures, Swiss Franc Futures, Canadian Dollar Futures.
5) Each trade is protected by stop loss.
6) Not a martingale.
7) Sims + Subscribers = 57*
8) AUM Subscribers C2 on my systems = 1,458,700 USD*

It is important to know when connecting my system “ARK Algo 1” (FX futures CME) to autotrade:

1) Attention! If your trading account is more than 90,000 USD, then it will be more profitable for you to subscribe to my system”ARK Algo 1”, where trading in currency futures on the CME exchange and less commission. I considered that with my turnover per year, the savings on commission is 3-4% per annum than when trading on the forex market.
2) There are no restrictions on the connection of autotrader. Any broker from the list - Interactive Brokers, Tradovate, StoneX, Trade Pro, GarWood, AMP Clearing, AGM Markets, Ninja Trader, CTS Platform (any broker), CQG Platform (any broker), Rithmic Platform (any broker), ETNA Trader (any broker).
3) Attention! I recommend that subscribers in the settings set the maximum risk parameters per month no more than 10-15-20%. Be sure to do this.
4) Attention! To be honest with you, this is not my first profile here. I had great periods here, when the number of paid subscribers was about 100 and the amount under management was about 7 million USD (this is the period from February 2018 to July 2019). For 2018, a profit of 88% was shown, but then 95% of customers left due to a profit of 16% per year!!! From experience I can say that low drawdowns and moderate profit (10-25% per year) are of little interest here, and when you start showing such a result 80-90 percent of clients leave. Strategies with large profits, which lead to large drawdowns in the future, are very popular. This is a pattern and a vicious circle. The more profit the more drawdown awaits you in the future. Therefore, I began to use my system with aggressive risks, which led to a series of failures. Therefore, when subscribing to the system, be sure to set the risk limit acceptable for you in your profile.
5) In the period from November 2021 to October 2022, I had the ARK system here, until May 2022 there was a stable growth of customers, excellent results for six months, a profit of more than 250%, the number of paid subscribers is slightly more than 100, funds are 15 million USD. Then I started trading more conservatively (less risky) and the number of subscribers dropped by 9 times in 3 months!!! I started trading again but more aggressively and this eventually resulted in an error, there was a large drawdown when selling USD/JPY due to the high leverage I took, the idea was right to sell 145-147-150 take profit 135-133 -131, but very poor execution resulted in a loss. I'm the only one to blame for this and there's no excuse for it. Now I'm back. Take a break from trading. During this time, I have optimized my system, leaving only the best algorithms there, and optimizing risk management. I believe in my system.
6) Archive of my systems here for this 2018-2023 system:
+ 1273.2%*, max dd - 75.6% | https://collective2.com/details/139046671
+ 35.8%*, max dd - 27.5% | https://collective2.com/details/117695605
+ 11.9%*, max dd - 21.7% | https://collective2.com/details/121833418

Useful recommendations when copying my system “ARK Algo 1” (FX futures CME):

1) Do not idealize the results of my trading. Stable every month for a long period of time, at least over a period of several years, you are unlikely to receive a plus every month, this is not a bank deposit. There will be periods of subsidence, since everything in this world is cyclical and the results in trading are no exception, after growth always follows a decline or for some time there is a stagnation in growth and this should be perceived normally.
2) Diversify your savings - do not put all your eggs in one basket.
3) Constantly and continuously monitor the results, it is desirable to do this several times a week, so you will be calmer.
4) Understand that profitability is not linear, it is not a bank deposit, that income received in the past cannot serve as a guarantee of receiving such income in the future.
5) Do not worry and don’t share your feelings with me about where the market will go or what you think is wrong at the moment (I don’t have a psychological session service), because there is a stop loss for every deal , there is a risk limit. Excessive anxiety only ruins the result.
6) There are periods, several trading sessions, several trading weeks when there is no trading activity, this is normal. Permanent presence in the market and constant trading in no way affects the better profit, does not make it anymore, sometimes just a few trading sessions make the result for a whole month. You need to be able to wait, work out only clear signals and then the result will be much better.
7) There is a possibility that you may lose some or all of your investments and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Michael
May 17, 2023*

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2023-01-31
Suggested Minimum Capital
$25,000
# Trades
125
# Profitable
101
% Profitable
80.8%
Correlation S&P500
0.051
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11
Sortino Ratio
-0.16
Beta
0.37
Alpha
-0.07
Leverage
22.19 Average
154.74 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

#PERSONNAME#
subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.