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C2Star Strategy SP500 trend Rank on Leaderboard #11 Hypothetical

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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more
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Trades-Own-Strategy Certification

This system has earned Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification. This means that the manager of this system trades his own strategy in a real-life, funded brokerage account.

Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification Details
Certification process started 05/04/2023
Most recent certification approved 5/4/23 11:10 ET
Trades at broker Interactive Brokers (Server 5)
Scaling percentage used 100%
# trading signals issued by system since certification 223
# trading signals executed in manager's Interactive Brokers (Server 5) account 223
Percent signals followed since 05/04/2023 100%
This information was last updated 9/21/23 6:09 ET

Warning: System trading results are still hypothetical.

Even though the system developer is currently trading his own system in a real-life brokerage account, the trading results presented on this Web site must still be regarded as purely hypothetical results. This is because (among other reasons) the system developer may not have traded all signals, particularly those that occurred before 05/04/2023, and the system developer's results may not match the system results presented here. In addition, not all subscribers have received the same trades or prices as the system manager has. For these reasons, and others, it is extremely important you remember the following:

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

You may be interested to learn more technical details about how Collective2 calculates the hypothetical results you see on this web site.

AI TQQQ min volatility
(144526247)

Created by: QuantTiger QuantTiger
Started: 05/2023
Stocks
Last trade: 3 days ago
Trading style: Equity Trend-following

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $125.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Trend-following
Category: Equity

Trend-following

Tries to take advantage of long, medium or short-term moves that seem to play out in various markets. Typically, trend-following analysis is backward looking; that is, it attempts to recognize and profit from already-established trends.
11.2%
Cumul. Return

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Cumulative Rate of Return is calculated

= (Ending_equity - Starting_equity) / Starting_equity

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(5.6%)
Max Drawdown
82
Num Trades
52.4%
Win Trades
1.5 : 1
Profit Factor
60.0%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023                            +5.8%+6.5%(1.5%)+5.3%(4.9%)                  +11.2%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 48 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 223 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
9/13/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 841 41.40 9/15 9:55 41.07 0.76%
Trade id #145816135
Max drawdown($376)
Time9/15/23 9:55
Quant open481
Worst price40.62
Drawdown as % of equity-0.76%
 ($295)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.82
9/12/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 346 40.54 9/13 15:17 40.71 0.24%
Trade id #145802785
Max drawdown($119)
Time9/13/23 10:17
Quant open346
Worst price40.19
Drawdown as % of equity-0.24%
 $54
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.92
9/6/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 863 40.78 9/12 14:50 40.78 0.47%
Trade id #145753647
Max drawdown($232)
Time9/7/23 0:00
Quant open121
Worst price39.38
Drawdown as % of equity-0.47%
 ($20)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $17.26
9/5/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 297 42.25 9/6 10:05 41.34 0.55%
Trade id #145741857
Max drawdown($272)
Time9/6/23 10:05
Quant open297
Worst price41.34
Drawdown as % of equity-0.55%
 ($277)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.94
8/30/23 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 3,647 17.73 9/5 15:59 17.72 0.53%
Trade id #145692627
Max drawdown($264)
Time9/5/23 14:58
Quant open1,390
Worst price17.54
Drawdown as % of equity-0.53%
 ($69)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $17.80
8/30/23 9:30 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 603 41.45 8/30 15:59 42.03 0.45%
Trade id #145686168
Max drawdown($223)
Time8/30/23 10:28
Quant open603
Worst price41.08
Drawdown as % of equity-0.45%
 $345
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
8/29/23 15:56: Rescaled downward to 85% of previous Model Account size
5/22/23 9:53 SCHD SCHWAB U.S. DIVIDEND EQUITY ET LONG 240.550000000 70.47 8/29 15:56 74.44 0.74%
Trade id #144708490
Max drawdown($328)
Time5/25/23 0:00
Quant open241
Worst price69.11
Drawdown as % of equity-0.74%
 $949
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.82
8/28/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 548.250000000 38.82 8/29 11:20 40.85 0.12%
Trade id #145668228
Max drawdown($58)
Time8/29/23 9:31
Quant open466
Worst price38.69
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
 $1,109
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.99
8/25/23 15:55 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 545.700000000 38.80 8/28 11:51 38.09 0.69%
Trade id #145648871
Max drawdown($332)
Time8/28/23 11:51
Quant open464
Worst price38.08
Drawdown as % of equity-0.69%
 ($393)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.95
8/23/23 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 1,150.050000000 18.62 8/25 9:37 19.99 0.23%
Trade id #145619136
Max drawdown($107)
Time8/24/23 0:00
Quant open190
Worst price18.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.23%
 $1,570
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.23
8/24/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 204 37.23 8/25 9:31 37.61 n/a $73
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.08
8/22/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 553.350000000 38.27 8/23 15:59 39.70 n/a $782
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.03
8/17/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 1,486.650000000 37.01 8/22 10:31 37.63 0.28%
Trade id #145566775
Max drawdown($128)
Time8/18/23 0:00
Quant open98
Worst price35.37
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
 $893
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $26.80
8/16/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 712.300000000 38.17 8/17 10:12 37.52 0.89%
Trade id #145556561
Max drawdown($406)
Time8/17/23 10:12
Quant open605
Worst price37.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.89%
 ($470)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.12
8/15/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 516.800000000 38.96 8/16 14:11 38.19 0.74%
Trade id #145537231
Max drawdown($340)
Time8/16/23 14:11
Quant open439
Worst price38.18
Drawdown as % of equity-0.74%
 ($406)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.67
8/10/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 1,275 39.37 8/15 10:06 39.53 0.25%
Trade id #145499704
Max drawdown($117)
Time8/11/23 0:00
Quant open90
Worst price38.60
Drawdown as % of equity-0.25%
 $175
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $22.69
8/9/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 338.300000000 40.37 8/10 15:59 39.88 0.62%
Trade id #145486884
Max drawdown($286)
Time8/10/23 13:57
Quant open287
Worst price39.37
Drawdown as % of equity-0.62%
 ($173)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.76
8/8/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 453.050000000 41.14 8/9 10:22 40.33 0.66%
Trade id #145475885
Max drawdown($311)
Time8/9/23 10:22
Quant open385
Worst price40.33
Drawdown as % of equity-0.66%
 ($375)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.06
8/2/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 1,380.400000000 41.59 8/8 9:50 41.38 0.94%
Trade id #145410801
Max drawdown($444)
Time8/8/23 9:50
Quant open385
Worst price40.44
Drawdown as % of equity-0.94%
 ($329)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $27.60
7/31/23 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 1,693.200000000 17.26 8/2 10:08 17.46 0%
Trade id #145386377
Max drawdown($1)
Time8/1/23 0:00
Quant open212
Worst price16.96
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 $339
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $12.49
7/27/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 699.550000000 44.56 7/31 15:59 45.18 n/a $416
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $13.98
7/26/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 413.100000000 44.74 7/27 13:32 44.21 0.39%
Trade id #145333607
Max drawdown($186)
Time7/27/23 13:32
Quant open351
Worst price44.21
Drawdown as % of equity-0.39%
 ($227)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.27
7/25/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 430.950000000 43.42 7/26 11:01 42.45 0.76%
Trade id #145321023
Max drawdown($359)
Time7/26/23 11:01
Quant open366
Worst price42.44
Drawdown as % of equity-0.76%
 ($428)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.62
7/21/23 15:58 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 749.700000000 42.99 7/25 15:59 43.37 0.08%
Trade id #145290228
Max drawdown($39)
Time7/24/23 0:00
Quant open84
Worst price42.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.08%
 $269
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $14.99
7/20/23 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 424.150000000 43.70 7/21 10:03 43.00 0.57%
Trade id #145278949
Max drawdown($267)
Time7/21/23 10:03
Quant open360
Worst price42.96
Drawdown as % of equity-0.57%
 ($306)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.49
7/20/23 9:30 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 917.150000000 17.06 7/20 14:01 17.59 0.27%
Trade id #145271074
Max drawdown($124)
Time7/20/23 9:51
Quant open779
Worst price16.90
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
 $486
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
7/19/23 9:30 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 1,130.500000000 16.53 7/19 15:59 16.68 0.31%
Trade id #145259262
Max drawdown($144)
Time7/19/23 12:04
Quant open960
Worst price16.38
Drawdown as % of equity-0.31%
 $170
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
7/18/23 9:30 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 992.800000000 17.17 7/18 15:15 16.50 1.25%
Trade id #145244705
Max drawdown($582)
Time7/18/23 15:15
Quant open844
Worst price16.48
Drawdown as % of equity-1.25%
 ($670)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
7/17/23 9:30 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 1,068.450000000 17.46 7/17 15:59 17.09 0.98%
Trade id #145233858
Max drawdown($463)
Time7/17/23 15:19
Quant open908
Worst price16.95
Drawdown as % of equity-0.98%
 ($395)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
7/14/23 9:30 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 1,066.750000000 17.47 7/14 10:10 17.14 0.66%
Trade id #145218196
Max drawdown($317)
Time7/14/23 10:10
Quant open907
Worst price17.12
Drawdown as % of equity-0.66%
 ($362)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    5/4/2023
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $35,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    139.77
  • Age
    140 days ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    82
  • # Profitable
    43
  • % Profitable
    52.40%
  • Avg trade duration
    2.5 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    5.64%
  • drawdown period
    June 30, 2023 - Aug 18, 2023
  • Cumul. Return
    11.2%
  • Avg win
    $425.07
  • Avg loss
    $316.31
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $35,422
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $34,877
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.49:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    1.69
  • Sortino Ratio
    2.96
  • Calmar Ratio
    8.109
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    2.76%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.30920
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    8.40%
  • Verified
  • C2Star
    1
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    31.1%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    6.10%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.14%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.112%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    41.6%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    795
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    953
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    1
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    897
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    917
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    Yes
  • TOS percent
    100%
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $316
  • Avg Win
    $425
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $12,336.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    5
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $18,278.000
  • # Winners
    43
  • Num Months Winners
    3
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    160
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    47941
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    39
  • % Winners
    52.4%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    3615.95
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    60.27
  • Avg Trade Length
    2.5 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    1
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.20
  • Daily leverage (max)
    2.68
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.05
  • Beta
    0.38
  • Treynor Index
    0.20
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.01
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -1.08
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    -63.495
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.02
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.350
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.100
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    -0.015
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.54988
  • SD
    0.11186
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    4.91580
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    3.55708
  • df
    3.00000
  • t
    2.83814
  • p
    0.03287
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.26912
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    9.82258
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.87296
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    7.98711
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    264.96500
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    266.69700
  • Upside part of mean
    0.55347
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.00359
  • Upside SD
    0.18595
  • Downside SD
    0.00208
  • N nonnegative terms
    3.00000
  • N negative terms
    1.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    4.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.29688
  • Mean of criterion
    0.54988
  • SD of predictor
    0.07920
  • SD of criterion
    0.11186
  • Covariance
    0.00469
  • r
    0.52889
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.74697
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.32812
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01352
  • DF error
    2.00000
  • t(b)
    0.88131
  • p(b)
    0.23556
  • t(a)
    1.01807
  • p(a)
    0.20788
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -2.89980
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    4.39373
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.05859
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.71483
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.73615
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.32812
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.53208
  • SD
    0.10814
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    4.92016
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    3.56023
  • df
    3.00000
  • t
    2.84065
  • p
    0.03281
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.26707
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    9.82943
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.87143
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    7.99189
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    256.83300
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    258.56500
  • Upside part of mean
    0.53567
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.00359
  • Upside SD
    0.17989
  • Downside SD
    0.00207
  • N nonnegative terms
    3.00000
  • N negative terms
    1.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    4.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.29037
  • Mean of criterion
    0.53208
  • SD of predictor
    0.07703
  • SD of criterion
    0.10814
  • Covariance
    0.00443
  • r
    0.53217
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.74713
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.31514
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01257
  • DF error
    2.00000
  • t(b)
    0.88894
  • p(b)
    0.23391
  • t(a)
    1.01039
  • p(a)
    0.20934
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -2.86912
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    4.36337
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.02686
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.65714
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.71217
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.31514
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00698
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01979
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00043
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00094
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    4.00000
  • Minimum
    1.00113
  • Quartile 1
    1.04131
  • Median
    1.05891
  • Quartile 3
    1.06575
  • Maximum
    1.07365
  • Mean of quarter 1
    1.00113
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.05471
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.06312
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.07365
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02444
  • Number outliers low
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.25000
  • Mean of outliers low
    1.00113
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    0.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00000
  • Quartile 1
    0.00000
  • Median
    0.00000
  • Quartile 3
    0.00000
  • Maximum
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.61566
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.75065
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    37.93310
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.33094
  • SD
    0.13204
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.50632
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.48729
  • df
    99.00000
  • t
    1.54841
  • p
    0.06236
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.69143
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.69175
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.70405
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.67862
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.48042
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    13.18240
  • Upside part of mean
    0.97371
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.64277
  • Upside SD
    0.11056
  • Downside SD
    0.07386
  • N nonnegative terms
    53.00000
  • N negative terms
    47.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    100.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.18932
  • Mean of criterion
    0.33094
  • SD of predictor
    0.10945
  • SD of criterion
    0.13204
  • Covariance
    0.00415
  • r
    0.28729
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.34661
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.26500
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01616
  • DF error
    98.00000
  • t(b)
    2.96918
  • p(b)
    0.00188
  • t(a)
    1.28208
  • p(a)
    0.10142
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.11495
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.57827
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.14536
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.67600
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.95480
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.26532
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.32212
  • SD
    0.13157
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.44823
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.42964
  • df
    99.00000
  • t
    1.51252
  • p
    0.06679
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.74856
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.63295
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.76084
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.62012
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.33534
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    13.02230
  • Upside part of mean
    0.96756
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.64545
  • Upside SD
    0.10961
  • Downside SD
    0.07430
  • N nonnegative terms
    53.00000
  • N negative terms
    47.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    100.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.18332
  • Mean of criterion
    0.32212
  • SD of predictor
    0.10929
  • SD of criterion
    0.13157
  • Covariance
    0.00412
  • r
    0.28673
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.34517
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.25884
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01605
  • DF error
    98.00000
  • t(b)
    2.96288
  • p(b)
    0.00191
  • t(a)
    1.25546
  • p(a)
    0.10615
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.11399
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.57636
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.15030
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.66798
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.93321
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.25884
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01207
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01541
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00549
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01026
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    100.00000
  • Minimum
    0.97898
  • Quartile 1
    0.99638
  • Median
    1.00037
  • Quartile 3
    1.00556
  • Maximum
    1.02662
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99216
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99825
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00311
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01196
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00918
  • Number outliers low
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.01000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97898
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.03000
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.02570
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.02165
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00768
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01006
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.32953
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00712
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01111
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    11.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00061
  • Quartile 1
    0.00271
  • Median
    0.00572
  • Quartile 3
    0.02233
  • Maximum
    0.05168
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00147
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00429
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.01461
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.03998
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01962
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -41.00180
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.04089
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -2.49732
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.06834
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.06892
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.37448
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.41910
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    8.10916
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    10.48280
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    27.19190
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.01200
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.50%
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -390026000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    49

Strategy Description

Trades TQQQ (3x long Nasdaq ETF) intraday. Will hold some positions overnight to augment returns and help the system "beat" the SP500, but more of the risk is intraday with tight stops. Goal is to have a system with low volatility.

This strategy trades TQQQ and long term swing trades SCHD. Most of the risk is taken intraday. Tight stops are used with this strategy, to minimize volatility. TQQQ is highly volatile, but this strategy should be much less volatile as a system, though there can and will be strings of losing days in a row. Use only risk money, as even though system is expected to be lower risk, as system can still slowly lose money over time. System is 100% algorithmic (non-discretionary), and uses machine learning (AI) to make decisions.

1. 3x ETFs are volatile and risky, this should be portion of your portfolio only
2. Margin account recommended. No martingale or margin used (if IRA, IRA margin required)
3. Position size is part of the strategy, be sure to set scaling properly
4. ETFs not available on IB in Europe https://europoor.com/how-to-buy-leveraged-etfs-from-europe/
5. $30k+ account size recommended (to avoid Pattern Day Trader violations)
6. Auto-trading *** HIGHLY *** recommended.
Trade this strategy at Interactive Brokers

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2023-05-04
Suggested Minimum Capital
$35,000
Rank at C2 
#83
# Trades
82
# Profitable
43
% Profitable
52.4%
Net Dividends
$159
Correlation S&P500
0.309
Sharpe Ratio
1.69
Sortino Ratio
2.96
Beta
0.38
Alpha
0.05
Leverage
1.20 Average
2.68 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.