Predictor Discretionary (44880815)
Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $1.00 per month.
Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec  YTD  

2009  +3.7%  (1.7%)  +2.0%  
2010  +0.3%  +3.7%  (0.8%)  +3.0%  (0.9%)  (1.3%)  +3.4%  +0.6%  (4.9%)  (1.9%)  +0.8%  +2.7%  +4.4% 
2011  +9.0%  (3%)  +26.0%  (9%)  +8.0%  +0.6%  (5.8%)    +2.6%  +11.8%  +2.6%  +2.8%  +50.1% 
2012  +0.3%  (5.2%)                      (5%) 
2013                          0.0 
2014                          0.0 
2015                          0.0 
2016                          0.0 
2017                      0.0 
Model Account Details
A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.
Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.
Started  $22,915  
Buy Power  $50,388  
Cash  $1  
Equity  $1  
Cumulative $  $27,473  
Total System Equity  $50,388  
Margined  $1  
Open P/L  $0  
Data has been delayed by 12 hours for nonsubscribers 
System developer has asked us to delay this information by 12 hours.
Trading Record
Statistics

Strategy began11/11/2009

Starting Unit Size$25,000

Strategy Age (days)2895.65

Age97 months ago

What it tradesFutures

# Trades633

# Profitable386

% Profitable61.00%

Avg trade duration9.7 hours

Max peaktovalley drawdown17.34%

drawdown periodOct 05, 2011  Oct 11, 2011

Annual Return (Compounded)5.4%

Avg win$264.22

Avg loss$301.68
 Model Account Values (Raw)

Cash$50,388

Margin Used$0

Buying Power$50,388
 Ratios

W:L ratio1.37:1

Sharpe Ratio0.754

Sortino Ratio1.266

Calmar Ratio1.718
 CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.10300
 Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)5.4%

Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)10.6%
 Risk of Ruin (MonteCarlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.00%

Chance of 20% account lossn/a

Chance of 30% account lossn/a

Chance of 40% account lossn/a

Chance of 50% account lossn/a
 Popularity

Popularity (Today)0

Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
 TradesOwnSystem Certification

Trades Own System?0

TOS percentn/a
 Subscription Price

Billing Period (days)30

Trial Days0
 Win / Loss

Avg Loss$302

Avg Win$264

# Winners386

# Losers247

% Winners61.0%
 Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)580.10

Avg Position Time (hrs)9.67

Avg Trade Length0.4 days

Last Trade Ago2064
 Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio

Mean0.16630

SD0.17588

Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.94553

Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.93156

df51.00000

t1.96828

p0.02724

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.01809

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.90024

Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.02718

Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.89029
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio

Sortino ratio3.43272

Upside Potential Ratio4.96920

Upside part of mean0.24073

Downside part of mean0.07443

Upside SD0.17406

Downside SD0.04844

N nonnegative terms18.00000

N negative terms34.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark

N of observations52.00000

Mean of predictor0.17650

Mean of criterion0.16630

SD of predictor0.14479

SD of criterion0.17588

Covariance0.00079

r0.03108

b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03775

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17296

Mean Square Error0.03152

DF error50.00000

t(b)0.21987

p(b)0.58657

t(a)1.91091

p(a)0.03088

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38263

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30712

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00884

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35476

Treynor index (mean / b)4.40494

Jensen alpha (a)0.17296
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio

Mean0.15127

SD0.16260

Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93027

Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91653

df51.00000

t1.93652

p0.02918

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.03272

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88449

Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.04166

Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87472
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio

Sortino ratio3.06175

Upside Potential Ratio4.58920

Upside part of mean0.22673

Downside part of mean0.07546

Upside SD0.15937

Downside SD0.04941

N nonnegative terms18.00000

N negative terms34.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark

N of observations52.00000

Mean of predictor0.16476

Mean of criterion0.15127

SD of predictor0.14359

SD of criterion0.16260

Covariance0.00067

r0.02865

b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03245

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15661

Mean Square Error0.02695

DF error50.00000

t(b)0.20268

p(b)0.57990

t(a)1.88346

p(a)0.03273

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35398

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28909

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01040

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32363

Treynor index (mean / b)4.66210

Jensen alpha (a)0.15661
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)

VaR(95%)0.06256

Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08063
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)

VaR(95%)0.01677

Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03314
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates

Number of observations52.00000

Minimum0.94058

Quartile 11.00000

Median1.00000

Quartile 31.02452

Maximum1.23056

Mean of quarter 10.98128

Mean of quarter 21.00000

Mean of quarter 31.00613

Mean of quarter 41.07734

Inter Quartile Range0.02452

Number outliers low1.00000

Percentage of outliers low0.01923

Mean of outliers low0.94058

Number of outliers high4.00000

Percentage of outliers high0.07692

Mean of outliers high1.15535
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex

Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00000

VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00000

Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00000

Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.83788

VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02856

Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03585
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs

Number of observations6.00000

Minimum0.02136

Quartile 10.02688

Median0.03408

Quartile 30.03929

Maximum0.06900

Mean of quarter 10.02315

Mean of quarter 20.03272

Mean of quarter 30.03543

Mean of quarter 40.05479

Inter Quartile Range0.01241

Number outliers low0.00000

Percentage of outliers low0.00000

Mean of outliers low0.00000

Number of outliers high1.00000

Percentage of outliers high0.16667

Mean of outliers high0.06900
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T

Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00000

VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00000

Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00000

Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00000

VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00000

Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00000
 COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.27085

Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.19623

Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.84379

Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.58170

Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.43368

0.00000

0.00000
 Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio

Mean0.17552

SD0.23277

Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.75406

Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.75357

df1150.00000

t1.58049

p0.47672

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.18169

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.68951

Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.18205

Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.68918
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio

Sortino ratio1.26603

Upside Potential Ratio5.46505

Upside part of mean0.75768

Downside part of mean0.58216

Upside SD0.18717

Downside SD0.13864

N nonnegative terms217.00000

N negative terms934.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark

N of observations1151.00000

Mean of predictor0.19359

Mean of criterion0.17552

SD of predictor0.21975

SD of criterion0.23277

Covariance0.00132

r0.02571

b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02723

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18100

Mean Square Error0.05419

DF error1149.00000

t(b)0.87174

p(b)0.51636

t(a)1.62538

p(a)0.46952

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08852

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03406

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03745

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39904

Treynor index (mean / b)6.44542

Jensen alpha (a)0.18080
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio

Mean0.14883

SD0.23005

Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.64695

Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.64652

df1150.00000

t1.35599

p0.48002

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.28867

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.58229

Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.28896

Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.58200
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio

Sortino ratio1.04190

Upside Potential Ratio5.18694

Upside part of mean0.74092

Downside part of mean0.59209

Upside SD0.18043

Downside SD0.14284

N nonnegative terms217.00000

N negative terms934.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark

N of observations1151.00000

Mean of predictor0.16938

Mean of criterion0.14883

SD of predictor0.21980

SD of criterion0.23005

Covariance0.00129

r0.02553

b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02672

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15335

Mean Square Error0.05293

DF error1149.00000

t(b)0.86562

p(b)0.51625

t(a)1.39549

p(a)0.47382

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08728

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03384

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06226

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36897

Treynor index (mean / b)5.57006

Jensen alpha (a)0.15335
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)

VaR(95%)0.02255

Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02833
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)

VaR(95%)0.00679

Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01488
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates

Number of observations1151.00000

Minimum0.88980

Quartile 11.00000

Median1.00000

Quartile 31.00000

Maximum1.15140

Mean of quarter 10.99146

Mean of quarter 21.00000

Mean of quarter 31.00000

Mean of quarter 41.01164

Inter Quartile Range0.00000

Number outliers low203.00000

Percentage of outliers low0.17637

Mean of outliers low0.98789

Number of outliers high227.00000

Percentage of outliers high0.19722

Mean of outliers high1.01477
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex

Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.32730

VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00370

Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00817

Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.26262

VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00813

Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01840
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs

Number of observations38.00000

Minimum0.00053

Quartile 10.01411

Median0.02790

Quartile 30.06411

Maximum0.11255

Mean of quarter 10.00460

Mean of quarter 20.02058

Mean of quarter 30.04576

Mean of quarter 40.08773

Inter Quartile Range0.04999

Number outliers low0.00000

Percentage of outliers low0.00000

Mean of outliers low0.00000

Number of outliers high0.00000

Percentage of outliers high0.00000

Mean of outliers high0.00000
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T

Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.45963

VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09751

Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10700

Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.98857

VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08454

Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08682
 COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26716

Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.19332

Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.71768

Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.20351

Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.82484

0.00000

0.00000
 Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio

Mean0.02791

SD0.00000

Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.00000

Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.00000

df0.00000

t0.00000

p0.00000

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.00000

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.00000

Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.00000

Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.00000
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio

Sortino ratio16.18640

Upside Potential Ratio0.00000

Upside part of mean0.00000

Downside part of mean0.02791

Upside SD0.00000

Downside SD0.00172

N nonnegative terms0.00000

N negative terms131.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark

N of observations131.00000

Mean of predictor0.45380

Mean of criterion0.02791

SD of predictor0.19994

SD of criterion0.00000

Covariance0.00000

r0.00000

b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00000

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00000

Mean Square Error0.00000

DF error0.00000

t(b)0.00000

p(b)0.00000

t(a)0.00000

p(a)0.00000

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00000

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00000

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00000

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00000

Treynor index (mean / b)0.00000

Jensen alpha (a)0.00000
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio

Mean0.02791

SD0.00000

Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)9748420000000000.00000

Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)9692070000000000.00000

df130.00000

t6893170000000000.00000

p1.00000

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.00000

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.00000

Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation10870200000000000.00000

Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation8513980000000000.00000
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio

Sortino ratio16.18640

Upside Potential Ratio0.00000

Upside part of mean0.00000

Downside part of mean0.02791

Upside SD0.00000

Downside SD0.00172

N nonnegative terms0.00000

N negative terms131.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark

N of observations131.00000

Mean of predictor0.43343

Mean of criterion0.02791

SD of predictor0.20079

SD of criterion0.00000

Covariance0.00000

r0.00000

b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00000

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02791

Mean Square Error0.00000

DF error129.00000

t(b)0.00000

p(b)0.50000

t(a)6805890000000000.00000

p(a)1.00000

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00000

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00000

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02791

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02791

Treynor index (mean / b)96527399999999986092805030150144.00000

Jensen alpha (a)0.02791
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)

VaR(95%)0.00011

Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00011
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)

VaR(95%)0.00000

Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00000
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates

Number of observations131.00000

Minimum1.00000

Quartile 11.00000

Median1.00000

Quartile 31.00000

Maximum1.00000

Mean of quarter 11.00000

Mean of quarter 21.00000

Mean of quarter 31.00000

Mean of quarter 41.00000

Inter Quartile Range0.00000

Number outliers low0.00000

Percentage of outliers low0.00000

Mean of outliers low0.00000

Number of outliers high0.00000

Percentage of outliers high0.00000

Mean of outliers high0.00000
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex

Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00000

VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00000

Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00000

Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00000

VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00000

Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00000
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs

Number of observations0.00000

Minimum0.00000

Quartile 10.00000

Median0.00000

Quartile 30.00000

Maximum0.00000

Mean of quarter 10.00000

Mean of quarter 20.00000

Mean of quarter 30.00000

Mean of quarter 40.00000

Inter Quartile Range0.00000

Number outliers low0.00000

Percentage of outliers low0.00000

Mean of outliers low0.00000

Number of outliers high0.00000

Percentage of outliers high0.00000

Mean of outliers high0.00000
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T

Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00000

VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00000

Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00000

Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00000

VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00000

Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00000
 COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.00000

Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.00000

Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.00000

Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.00000

Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.00000
Strategy Description
These are my discretionary predictions which are based on my own proprietary blend of analysis including quantitative analysis (mechanical systems), technical analysis, sentiment, and other factors.Notice: Go to http://themarketpredictor.com/ to learn more about methodology and read my commentary!
FAQ
1. I see some fractional contracts why is that?
I've been so successful that my system equity grew to a point where I felt it made sense for me to "rescale" it down. This will make it easier for those with less capital to track me. The percent changes are the same except I'm penalized because the monthly fees are applied to a lower starting capital.
2. The after commissions performance doesn't look the best. What performance is possible?
The after commission is set by default to "typical" commissions which is too high for this system. If you use MBTrading or OpenECry, you will see a much better and more realistic result. Some traders may even achieve slightly better actual results then the after cost estimates (using cheaper brokers/better deals using Gen1). I have found this to be true at least on some days.
More Info:
1. I focus on directional timing strategies. The core strategy will not hold more then 1 position at any time. I do experiment and try to find creative edges.
2. I do use some leverage. Leverage can both magnify gains and losses and the differences both positive and negative are typically strongly modulated by volatility.
I vary my position size currently on a few factors: confidence, timeinmarket consideration, perceived risk, personal goals, and type of trade.
3. I do not use or believe in martingale strategies. However, I do believe that in certain rare cases the optimal course of action may require that one opens a new position on a position that is already underwater. I always try to take the optimal action. I may at unique times average into a trade.
4. Most of my trades are executed during the regular session and closed before or shortly after the close. I may hold positions up to a few days but currently my style is day trading.
5. I use multiple risk management strategies. First, I use the C2 constraint feature which sets a large autostop on each position. This is currently set at 3% but may be reduced or increased. I anticipate the range to stay between 2% and 3.5%. However, I often will set a tighter stop of only a few points shortly after entering a position. I rarely take losses in that range but it can happen.
6. I do trade distinctly different styles, and I do experiment. In some cases, I may shoot for a high win ratio and use targets and in other cases I may try to catch big trends. I always try to win. But, I'm, also, training, practicing, and trying to hone my techniques. Be wary of extrapolating a short history of my trading style into the future. During some periods, you may see my trading style change dramatically as I work on new skills or try out new ideas. I always try to win though.
7. My market calls could prove extremely valuable and profitable to the intraday trader and do promote my service as more then a trading system. I do feel my services could be invaluable in terms of intraday decision support.
8. I have found that setting hard/inflexible rules does not bring out the best in my performance. Instead, I've found that having a general plan and guidelines to be more effective. Thus, one should view this plan as a workinprogress and as a general guidelines or blue print. This plan will be updated as time goes on and changes may be made without explicit notification.
9. My performance may vary as I change my personal goals. My current goals are to be consistently profitable, and my new goal is to produce returns in the 50% to 120% range. Higher returns require taking a higher risk. Please note that risk will be higher going forward. The previous maximum risk likely understate the future risks.
10. As noted, I do take experimental trades and vary my position size. If you autotrade either issue may be an important consideration. I advise to monitor and evaluate your risk tolerance carefully.

This system is open only to individual subscribers, retail traders, and independent professional traders. If you are a broker, hedge fund manager, or proprietary trading group please contact me for rates and/or partnership opportunities. Signals may not be reproduced without permission.
Warning:
This system, as any trading system, is host to both known and unknown risk. Significant loss including total account loss is a distinct possibility with any system. Past performance is no guarantee of future profits. I am not a financial professional and can not, and do not, offer investment advice.
No warranty is implied or guaranteed. As system is discretionary, adaptation or changes to all rules, style of trading, position sizing, and use of leverage may take place at any time without warning or notification. You agree to not hold me liable for any order entry mistakes, timing delays, or other failures. By signing up for my system you acknowledge all of these risks and unspecified risk and agree to not hold me liable for any losses. Any claims are my opinion and not the claims of my employer.
Please don't even *THINK* about trading this system unless you are prepared to lose up to 12% to 30% on a NORMAL downswing and more on a larger then anticipated downswing. I've set extremely high return goals for myself that will increase the risk going forward. Thanks!
Summary Statistics
Latest Activity
Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.
Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.
Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.
About the results you see on this Web site
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have underor overcompensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results
The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.
 Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
 Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been rescaled downward to make current goforward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
 All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any pertrade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
 "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.
Trading is risky
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
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