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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more

Bear Market System
(139373540)

Created by: WallStForMainSt WallStForMainSt
Started: 02/2022
Stocks
Last trade: 3 days ago
Trading style: Equity Trend-following Short-term Reversal

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $99.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Trend-following
Category: Equity

Trend-following

Tries to take advantage of long, medium or short-term moves that seem to play out in various markets. Typically, trend-following analysis is backward looking; that is, it attempts to recognize and profit from already-established trends.
Short-term Reversal
Category: Equity

Short-term Reversal

Exploits the tendency of stocks with strong gains and stocks with strong losses to reverse in a short-term time frame (up to one month).
-16.9%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(43.3%)
Max Drawdown
284
Num Trades
62.7%
Win Trades
0.9 : 1
Profit Factor
35.0%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022       +2.4%+6.3%(6.7%)+5.5%+6.4%(1.7%)(1.2%)(1.9%)(1.9%)(7.7%)(5.1%)(6.6%)
2023(11%)+2.2%(6.2%)+0.6%(5.7%)+5.0%(3.2%)(1.6%)(2.2%)                  (20.8%)

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 25 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 516 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
8/4/23 9:30 OMC OMNICOM GROUP LONG 50 81.23 9/18 9:30 76.68 1.15%
Trade id #145429678
Max drawdown($228)
Time9/18/23 9:30
Quant open50
Worst price76.66
Drawdown as % of equity-1.15%
($228)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.00
8/16/23 12:02 HLIT HARMONIC LONG 400 10.11 8/31 9:30 10.73 0.16%
Trade id #145545808
Max drawdown($27)
Time8/25/23 0:00
Quant open400
Worst price10.04
Drawdown as % of equity-0.16%
$242
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/14/23 9:38 SCYX SCYNEXIS INC. COMMON STOCK LONG 500 3.09 8/28 9:57 3.17 1.98%
Trade id #144297433
Max drawdown($376)
Time6/6/23 0:00
Quant open500
Worst price2.34
Drawdown as % of equity-1.98%
$29
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $10.00
7/31/23 9:32 EFX EQUIFAX LONG 20 202.77 8/18 9:30 189.09 1.58%
Trade id #145373174
Max drawdown($277)
Time8/18/23 9:30
Quant open20
Worst price188.88
Drawdown as % of equity-1.58%
($274)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.40
8/1/23 9:30 EL ESTEE LAUDER COS LONG 25 177.06 8/8 9:49 166.87 1.36%
Trade id #145391070
Max drawdown($255)
Time8/8/23 9:49
Quant open25
Worst price166.83
Drawdown as % of equity-1.36%
($256)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.50
3/1/23 13:45 PFE PFIZER LONG 50 40.26 8/3 9:30 35.20 1.37%
Trade id #143738308
Max drawdown($255)
Time8/3/23 9:30
Quant open50
Worst price35.14
Drawdown as % of equity-1.37%
($254)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.00
6/26/23 9:38 WEN WENDY'S LONG 100 21.30 8/2 13:34 21.61 0.12%
Trade id #145030062
Max drawdown($23)
Time7/18/23 0:00
Quant open100
Worst price21.07
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
$29
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00
7/13/23 9:45 MKC MCCORMICK LONG 50 84.81 7/21 15:13 88.00 0.17%
Trade id #145204637
Max drawdown($33)
Time7/13/23 10:04
Quant open50
Worst price84.14
Drawdown as % of equity-0.17%
$158
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.00
8/18/22 9:30 VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS LONG 220 41.56 7/17/23 12:58 35.35 5.95%
Trade id #141459557
Max drawdown($1,279)
Time1/24/23 0:00
Quant open110
Worst price32.79
Drawdown as % of equity-5.95%
($1,371)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.40
6/5/23 9:46 VALE VALE SHORT 300 13.75 6/16 10:34 14.50 1.16%
Trade id #144832328
Max drawdown($227)
Time6/16/23 10:34
Quant open300
Worst price14.51
Drawdown as % of equity-1.16%
($230)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.00
3/13/23 15:30 TMUS T-MOBILE US INC. COMMON STOCK SHORT 35 140.13 6/2 9:30 128.99 2.04%
Trade id #143883381
Max drawdown($403)
Time4/18/23 0:00
Quant open35
Worst price151.66
Drawdown as % of equity-2.04%
$389
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.70
4/26/23 10:05 RTX RAYTHEON TECHNOLOGIES CORP LONG 25 98.25 5/25 9:40 92.94 0.68%
Trade id #144428449
Max drawdown($132)
Time5/25/23 9:40
Quant open25
Worst price92.94
Drawdown as % of equity-0.68%
($134)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.50
5/8/23 9:30 CRUS CIRRUS LOGIC LONG 20 79.21 5/24 9:30 74.53 0.49%
Trade id #144555377
Max drawdown($96)
Time5/24/23 9:30
Quant open20
Worst price74.39
Drawdown as % of equity-0.49%
($94)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.40
5/11/23 10:48 TTD THE TRADE DESK INC. CLASS A LONG 50 62.10 5/12 9:31 65.00 0.4%
Trade id #144588729
Max drawdown($77)
Time5/11/23 11:21
Quant open50
Worst price60.56
Drawdown as % of equity-0.40%
$144
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.00
4/25/23 9:48 JD JD.COM INC LONG 100 33.80 5/1 9:39 35.76 0.14%
Trade id #144415231
Max drawdown($27)
Time4/25/23 13:18
Quant open100
Worst price33.53
Drawdown as % of equity-0.14%
$194
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00
4/13/23 9:30 JPM JPMORGAN CHASE LONG 25 128.00 4/14 9:30 135.00 0.15%
Trade id #144282001
Max drawdown($29)
Time4/13/23 9:37
Quant open25
Worst price126.83
Drawdown as % of equity-0.15%
$175
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.50
4/10/23 9:32 SCYX SCYNEXIS INC. COMMON STOCK LONG 1,000 3.40 4/13 15:13 3.00 2.16%
Trade id #144236468
Max drawdown($420)
Time4/13/23 15:13
Quant open1,000
Worst price2.98
Drawdown as % of equity-2.16%
($405)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/4/23 10:58 MMM 3M LONG 45 102.80 4/12 13:47 104.87 0.41%
Trade id #144174339
Max drawdown($78)
Time4/10/23 0:00
Quant open45
Worst price101.05
Drawdown as % of equity-0.41%
$92
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.90
4/4/23 11:58 RTX RAYTHEON TECHNOLOGIES CORP LONG 50 99.25 4/12 13:44 101.73 0.41%
Trade id #144176043
Max drawdown($80)
Time4/10/23 0:00
Quant open50
Worst price97.65
Drawdown as % of equity-0.41%
$123
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.00
4/5/23 13:52 AI C3.AI INC LONG 25 21.00 4/11 9:30 23.69 0.08%
Trade id #144199375
Max drawdown($14)
Time4/6/23 0:00
Quant open25
Worst price20.40
Drawdown as % of equity-0.08%
$67
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.50
3/3/23 15:29 BABA ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LIMITED LONG 25 89.59 4/6 11:46 101.42 1.27%
Trade id #143772206
Max drawdown($252)
Time3/20/23 0:00
Quant open25
Worst price79.48
Drawdown as % of equity-1.27%
$296
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.50
3/30/23 11:12 MMM 3M LONG 25 103.50 4/4 9:30 104.90 0.12%
Trade id #144116015
Max drawdown($24)
Time3/30/23 13:46
Quant open25
Worst price102.53
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
$35
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.50
3/30/23 15:03 SCYX SCYNEXIS INC. COMMON STOCK LONG 1,000 2.76 3/30 15:16 2.90 0%
Trade id #144118812
Max drawdown($0)
Time3/30/23 15:10
Quant open1,000
Worst price2.76
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
$135
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
2/28/23 15:19 WEAT TEUCRIUM WHEAT LONG 500 7.16 3/29 9:30 7.28 1.51%
Trade id #143724391
Max drawdown($249)
Time3/22/23 0:00
Quant open500
Worst price6.66
Drawdown as % of equity-1.51%
$52
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $10.00
3/1/23 10:15 AI2517A45 AI Jan17'25 45 call LONG 1 4.00 3/24 9:30 4.97 0.28%
Trade id #143733766
Max drawdown($60)
Time3/1/23 10:28
Quant open1
Worst price3.40
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
$95
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00
3/17/23 10:01 COIN COINBASE GLOBAL INC. CLASS A SHORT 25 72.50 3/21 13:12 82.57 1.33%
Trade id #143944299
Max drawdown($258)
Time3/21/23 13:12
Quant open25
Worst price82.85
Drawdown as % of equity-1.33%
($253)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.50
3/16/23 14:05 XLF FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR SHORT 100 31.97 3/17 9:33 31.50 0.05%
Trade id #143935559
Max drawdown($9)
Time3/16/23 15:43
Quant open100
Worst price32.07
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
$45
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00
3/14/23 9:41 WMT WALMART INC LONG 35 137.86 3/16 12:51 139.59 0.2%
Trade id #143893684
Max drawdown($40)
Time3/15/23 0:00
Quant open35
Worst price136.71
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
$60
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.70
3/13/23 15:33 AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC. C SHORT 50 82.36 3/15 15:27 89.99 1.95%
Trade id #143883421
Max drawdown($389)
Time3/15/23 15:27
Quant open50
Worst price90.16
Drawdown as % of equity-1.95%
($382)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.00
3/6/23 12:50 INTC INTEL LONG 100 26.07 3/10 11:02 27.24 0.28%
Trade id #143789614
Max drawdown($61)
Time3/8/23 0:00
Quant open100
Worst price25.45
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
$116
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    2/13/2022
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $5,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    584.15
  • Age
    19 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    284
  • # Profitable
    178
  • % Profitable
    62.70%
  • Avg trade duration
    12.4 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    43.29%
  • drawdown period
    June 28, 2022 - March 21, 2023
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    -16.9%
  • Avg win
    $137.54
  • Avg loss
    $265.42
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $10,567
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $7,319
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    0.92:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    -0.8
  • Sortino Ratio
    -1.07
  • Calmar Ratio
    -0.26
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -25.38%
  • Correlation to SP500
    -0.01620
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    -0.37%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    -16.9%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    56.80%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.77%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    -27.390%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    -0.169%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    0.01%
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    0.99%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    -8.1%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    65.50%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    31.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    2.50%
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    0
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    1
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    744
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $265
  • Avg Win
    $138
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $28,134.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    20
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $24,483.000
  • # Winners
    178
  • Num Months Winners
    7
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    479
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    148428
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    106
  • % Winners
    62.7%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    17851.90
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    297.53
  • Avg Trade Length
    12.4 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    3
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.11
  • Daily leverage (max)
    2.82
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    -0.05
  • Beta
    -0.02
  • Treynor Index
    3.30
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.01
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    0.38
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.01
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.02
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    -2.569
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.03
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.921
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.181
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    -0.382
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.07048
  • SD
    0.17865
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.39452
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.37781
  • df
    18.00000
  • t
    -0.49643
  • p
    0.55811
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.95202
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.17374
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.94032
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.18469
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.56634
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.65529
  • Upside part of mean
    0.20600
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.27649
  • Upside SD
    0.12313
  • Downside SD
    0.12445
  • N nonnegative terms
    9.00000
  • N negative terms
    10.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    19.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.00272
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.07048
  • SD of predictor
    0.19400
  • SD of criterion
    0.17865
  • Covariance
    -0.00797
  • r
    -0.22988
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.21170
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.07106
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03201
  • DF error
    17.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.97391
  • p(b)
    0.64505
  • t(a)
    -0.49977
  • p(a)
    0.57642
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.67030
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.24691
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.37104
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.22892
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.33294
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.07106
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.08555
  • SD
    0.17752
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.48190
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.46149
  • df
    18.00000
  • t
    -0.60638
  • p
    0.57074
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.04079
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.09010
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.02639
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.10341
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.66460
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.54121
  • Upside part of mean
    0.19838
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.28393
  • Upside SD
    0.11788
  • Downside SD
    0.12872
  • N nonnegative terms
    9.00000
  • N negative terms
    10.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    19.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.02051
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.08555
  • SD of predictor
    0.19396
  • SD of criterion
    0.17752
  • Covariance
    -0.00790
  • r
    -0.22945
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.20999
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.08985
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03161
  • DF error
    17.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.97198
  • p(b)
    0.64478
  • t(a)
    -0.63562
  • p(a)
    0.59662
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.66582
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.24583
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.38810
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.20840
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.40738
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.08985
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.08737
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.10654
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.05529
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.08814
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    19.00000
  • Minimum
    0.90223
  • Quartile 1
    0.96458
  • Median
    0.98642
  • Quartile 3
    1.01541
  • Maximum
    1.10225
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.94288
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.97423
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00927
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.06201
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.05083
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.05263
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.10225
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.05136
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.06217
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.08183
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.69896
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.07589
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.21189
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.03113
  • Quartile 1
    0.09605
  • Median
    0.16098
  • Quartile 3
    0.22590
  • Maximum
    0.29083
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.03113
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.29083
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.12985
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.05509
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.05601
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.19259
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.19259
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -0.52572
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.09962
  • SD
    0.17511
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.56890
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.56787
  • df
    417.00000
  • t
    -0.71857
  • p
    0.76360
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.12078
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.98360
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.12006
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.98432
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.77439
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    7.31079
  • Upside part of mean
    0.94047
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.04009
  • Upside SD
    0.11865
  • Downside SD
    0.12864
  • N nonnegative terms
    195.00000
  • N negative terms
    223.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    418.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.00702
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.09962
  • SD of predictor
    0.20420
  • SD of criterion
    0.17511
  • Covariance
    -0.00060
  • r
    -0.01681
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.01441
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.10000
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03073
  • DF error
    416.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.34290
  • p(b)
    0.63408
  • t(a)
    -0.71854
  • p(a)
    0.76359
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.09705
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.06822
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.37252
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.17308
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    6.91085
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.09972
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.11498
  • SD
    0.17559
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.65482
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.65364
  • df
    417.00000
  • t
    -0.82710
  • p
    0.79567
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.20678
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.89791
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.20598
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.89870
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.87974
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    7.14209
  • Upside part of mean
    0.93345
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.04843
  • Upside SD
    0.11716
  • Downside SD
    0.13070
  • N nonnegative terms
    195.00000
  • N negative terms
    223.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    418.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.02783
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.11498
  • SD of predictor
    0.20430
  • SD of criterion
    0.17559
  • Covariance
    -0.00062
  • r
    -0.01740
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.01495
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.11539
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03090
  • DF error
    416.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.35486
  • p(b)
    0.63856
  • t(a)
    -0.82919
  • p(a)
    0.79626
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.09777
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.06787
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.38895
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.15816
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    7.69049
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.11539
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01812
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02255
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00954
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01829
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    418.00000
  • Minimum
    0.92561
  • Quartile 1
    0.99425
  • Median
    0.99971
  • Quartile 3
    1.00572
  • Maximum
    1.06161
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98734
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99707
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00229
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01221
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01147
  • Number outliers low
    6.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.01435
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.96086
  • Number of outliers high
    7.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.01675
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.03304
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.21163
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01300
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01973
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.02213
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01197
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01597
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    8.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00456
  • Quartile 1
    0.01159
  • Median
    0.01551
  • Quartile 3
    0.04626
  • Maximum
    0.32051
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00724
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01347
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.02714
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.19568
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03467
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.12500
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.32051
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.08130
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.08339
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.26018
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.42615
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -3.69815
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.00637
  • SD
    0.14333
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.04441
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.04416
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.03141
  • p
    0.50138
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.81623
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.72740
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.81597
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.72765
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.06818
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    9.34247
  • Upside part of mean
    0.87234
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.87870
  • Upside SD
    0.10802
  • Downside SD
    0.09337
  • N nonnegative terms
    62.00000
  • N negative terms
    69.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.20181
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.00637
  • SD of predictor
    0.11222
  • SD of criterion
    0.14333
  • Covariance
    0.00546
  • r
    0.33915
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.43319
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.09379
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01832
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    4.09474
  • p(b)
    0.28830
  • t(a)
    -0.48693
  • p(a)
    0.52726
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.22388
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.64251
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.47488
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.28730
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.01470
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.09379
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.01651
  • SD
    0.14286
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.11559
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.11492
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.08174
  • p
    0.50358
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.88732
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.65637
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.88677
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.65692
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.17570
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    9.21938
  • Upside part of mean
    0.86650
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.88301
  • Upside SD
    0.10686
  • Downside SD
    0.09399
  • N nonnegative terms
    62.00000
  • N negative terms
    69.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.19548
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.01651
  • SD of predictor
    0.11203
  • SD of criterion
    0.14286
  • Covariance
    0.00546
  • r
    0.34101
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.43482
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.10151
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01817
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    4.12003
  • p(b)
    0.28719
  • t(a)
    -0.52935
  • p(a)
    0.52963
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.01800
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.22601
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.64363
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.48093
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.27790
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.03798
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.10151
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01447
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01810
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00807
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01403
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.97691
  • Quartile 1
    0.99462
  • Median
    0.99949
  • Quartile 3
    1.00576
  • Maximum
    1.04150
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99006
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99687
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00233
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01114
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01113
  • Number outliers low
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00763
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97691
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00763
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.04150
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.11220
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01053
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01439
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.06727
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01085
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01458
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    6.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00154
  • Quartile 1
    0.01156
  • Median
    0.03971
  • Quartile 3
    0.05134
  • Maximum
    0.11024
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00332
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.03095
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.04848
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.08127
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03979
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.75%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -364318000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    266
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.01143
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.01146
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.10395
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.14100
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.63322

Strategy Description

Hi, Yagami Consulting here!

We’re sending this message to invite you to simulate our strategy, “Bear Market System”.
on Collective2 https://collective2.com/details/139373540

What makes our system different?
-actively managed / trader style portfolio
-we only swing trade
-no long-term positions because we don't want exposure to the market like that.
-all the trades are both fundamentally researched and technically analyzed
-every trade has a stoploss and take profit planned to ensure limited losses
-everything is systematic

Here's a little more about us.
Yagami Consulting is a team of two professional analysts with over 15 years of experience, we designed a portfolio that can yield consistent and robust returns even in the harshest of market conditions. Many other portfolios only perform well during bull markets, and the ones that perform well are expensive to subscribe to. Our All-Conditions System is affordable and generates consistent returns.

New plays are added into the system every week as we find more opportunities to short or to buy the dip.

As you can see in our performance chart, we have been out-performing the S&P 500 so far in this time of great volatility. Please let us know if you have any questions (edited)
Collective2

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2022-02-13
Suggested Minimum Capital
$5,000
Rank at C2 
#205
# Trades
284
# Profitable
178
% Profitable
62.7%
Net Dividends
Correlation S&P500
-0.016
Sharpe Ratio
-0.80
Sortino Ratio
-1.07
Beta
-0.02
Alpha
-0.05
Leverage
1.11 Average
2.82 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

#PERSONNAME#
subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.